Mattie T’s Week 4 Predictions of the 2007 NFL Season

It’s been a good week for Mattie T! Got to split the weekly pot for the Week 3 Office Pool & watched my Cubbies clinch the NL Central division title Friday night.
Now, it’s time for Week 4!!!

Week 3: 12-4

Overall: 33-15 (.688)

vs.
(2-1) Houston Texans vs. (0-3) Atlanta Falcons from Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA.

12:00 PM CST on

Did you know? Houston won the only previous meeting 17-13 in 2003.

Texans QB Matt Schaub will make his return to the Georgia Dome on Sunday after spending the previous 3 seasons in Atlanta as Michael Vick’s backup.

Atlanta decided to trade Schaub to Houston in March, which was a move that they may later regret thanks to Michael Vick’s off-season troubles which has put his NFL career in jeopardy.

If Schaub completes his first 9 pass attempts on Sunday, he will break the NFL record held by former Texan David Carr (22) for the most pass completions.

Schaub’s quarterback rating of 100.9 currently ranks 9th in the NFL.

Falcons QB Joey Harrington posted a 110.1 quarterback rating during the team’s Week 3 loss against Carolina. Harrington is now 6-2 all-time when posting a QB rating of 100 or higher during a game.

Harrington’s only previous game against Houston was in September of 2004, when he completed 18 of 25 passes for 176 yards, 3 touchdowns & 1 interception.

After leading the NFL in rushing last season, Atlanta has yet to record a 100-yard game on the ground in 2007.

They might have trouble breaking out against the Texans’ 6th ranked run defense. (Allowing 76.7 YPG)

Mattie T’s Prediction: While i don’t expect Atlanta to win many games this season, this is a game that they can win. Houston’s offense failed to reach the end zone until the 4th quarter during their Week 3 loss to Indianapolis.

It will be close, but Bobby Petrino will finally nail down his 1st NFL win as a head coach. I’m going with Atlanta to pull off the upset.

vs.
(1-2) N.Y. Jets vs. (0-3) Buffalo Bills from Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo, NY.

12:00 PM CST on

Did you know? The Jets & Bills have split their regular-season meetings in each of the past 4 seasons.

Buffalo is looking to snap a 5 game regular season losing streak on Sunday.

Their last regular season win was in December of 2006 when they beat Miami 21-0 in Week 15.

Bills rookie QB Trent Edwards will make his 1st NFL start on Sunday. Edwards played during Week 3 after J.P. Losman was knocked out of the game with a knee injury & completed 10 of 20 passes for 97 yards & 1 interception. (43.1 QB rating)

Buffalo has been hit hard by injuries so far this season, as 10 players have been already been hurt with 3 of them out for the season.

Bills WR Lee Evans has just 5 receptions for 29 yards this season & is off to the worst start of his 4 year career.

Jets RB Thomas Jones rushed for a season-high 110 yards during the team’s Week 3 win over Miami & will now try to put together back-to-back 100 yard games for the 1st time since November of 2006. (Jones was a member of the Chicago Bears.)

Jets QB Chad Pennington’s QB rating of 121.4 ranks 2nd in the NFL behind only Tom Brady & needs 233 yards on Sunday to surpass Vinny Testaverde for #4 on the Jets’ all-time passing yards list.

Mattie T’s Prediction: I expect a huge game from the Jets’ offense, as they will face a Bills defense that is dead-last both against the run (allowing 177.3 YPG) & the pass (281.0 YPG).

I’m taking the N.Y. Jets in a blowout.

vs.
(2-1) Baltimore Ravens vs. (1-2) Cleveland Browns from Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, OH.

12:00 PM CST on

Did you know? Baltimore has won 4 of the 5 past meetings.

Browns RB Jamal Lewis will face his former team for the 1st time on Sunday.

Lewis had his best pro season in 2003 with Baltimore, when he rushed for 2,066 yards & broke an NFL single-season record with 295 yards on 30 carries against guess who? The Browns.

Lewis is just one of 4 running backs who is averaging over 100 yards per game this season.

The other three are Travis Henry, Willie Parker & Lamont Jordan.

Browns TE Kellen Winslow is probable for Sunday after suffering a shoulder injury against Oakland in Week 3.

Winslow’s 16.9 yards per catch leads all tight ends this season.

Browns WR Joshua Cribbs has 488 combined return yards this season, which leads the NFL.

Ravens K Matt Stover hit his 13th career game-winning FG last week against Arizona. Stover also defeated Cleveland last season on a game-winning 52 yard FG with 20 seconds left.

Ravens QB Steve McNair will be back on Sunday after missing Week 3 with a groin injury.

Since 1999, McNair is 6-3 against the Browns.

Baltimore has allowed 55.6% of their defensive point total (63 on season) during the 4th quarter.

Mattie T’s Prediction: Just like both meeting last season, i think that this game will be very close.

But i believe that Jamal Lewis has a lot of incentives to come up big against his old team on Sunday, which might be the difference.

Plus, i know the Browns are still upset over having a last-second win taken away thanks to a late timeout by Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin as Phil Dawson kicked home a game-winning 40 yard field goal.

Dawson’s second attempt was blocked, which prevented Cleveland from a 2-1 start & just a 1 game deficit out of 1st place.

I’m thinking upset here, and that is why i am picking Cleveland to win.

vs.
(0-3) St. Louis Rams vs. (3-0) Dallas Cowboys from Texas Stadium in Irving, TX.

12:00 PM CST on

Did you know? The Rams haven’t lost a game at Texas Stadium since 1981, when Ray Malavasi was the team’s head coach.

St. Louis is just 0-3 for the 1st time over the past 22 seasons. The Rams also started 0-3 in 2002 & ended up with a 7-9 record.

Overall, the Rams have lost 10 of their last 14 games.

Rams RB Steven Jackson will miss Sunday’s game with a groin injury. Jackson did run for 115 yards during the team’s Week 3 loss at Tampa Bay, but it also snapped a 4 game win streak in which Jackson runs for 100 yards or more.

Jackson’s last game missed due to injury was ironically against the Cowboys on New Year’s Day in 2006, which was won 20-10 by the Rams.

Brian Leonard will make his 1st NFL start on Sunday for the Rams. Leonard rushed 4 times for 21 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 3 & also added 1 reception for 6 yards.

Dallas’ 116 points offensively leads the NFL.

Cowboys WR Terell Owens’ 145 receiving yards during the team’s Week 3 win over Chicago surpassed Michael Irvin as #14 on the NFL’s all-time receiving yards list with 12,044.

Cowboys QB Tony Romo has 34 completions of 25+ yards since Week 8 of 2006, which ties him alongside Drew Brees for the league lead.

Mattie T’s Prediction: This game could actually turn into a shootout, as it will feature the Rams’ 28th ranked run defense (allowing 152.3 YPG) & the Cowboys’ 23rd ranked pass defense (allowing 250.3 YPG).

But in the end, Steven Jackson’s presence will surely be missed. I’m taking Dallas here.

vs.
(1-2) Chicago Bears vs. (2-1) Detroit Lions from Ford Field in Detroit, MI.

Did you know? Chicago has won the last 4 meetings.

Bears QB Brian Griese will make his 1st start in nearly 2 years on Sunday against Detroit.

Griese replaces a struggling Rex Grossman, who ranked dead-last in the NFL with a 45.2 QB Rating among quarterbacks with 3 starts this season.

Bears DT Tommie Harris is expected to miss Sunday’s game with a knee injury that was suffered during the team’s Week 3 loss to Dallas.

Chicago’s defense allowed 26.3 PPG during the 4 regular-season games Harris missed last season, as opposed to 12.5 PPG that he played.

Lions RB Kevin Jones made his 2007 season debut during the team’s Week 3 loss to Philadelphia & scored his 1st rushing touchdown since November of 2006.

Lions QB Jon Kitna leads the NFL with 980 passing yards this season & has passed for 4,387 total yards over his last 16 games, which also leads the NFL.

Lions WR Calvin Johnson is questionable for Sunday’s game with a back injury. Johnson ranks 6th in the NFL with an average of 18.9 yards per catch.

Mattie T’s Prediction: This one could also turn into a shootout.

Jon Kitna could have a big game with the absence of Tommie Harris, along with Nathan Vasher & Charles Tillman, who are both questionable for Sunday’s game.

Brian Griese should also have a big game against Detroit’s 31st ranked pass offense, which is giving up 278.7 YPG.

Rex Grossman was unable to take advantage of a shaky Dallas secondary last week. But Griese will take advantage of a bad Detroit secondary Sunday, which is why i’m picking Chicago to win.

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(1-2) Oakland Raiders vs. (0-3) Miami Dolphins from Dolphin Stadium in Miami, FL.

12:00 PM CST on

Did you know? Miami hasn’t lost a home game to Oakland since 1990.

With Raiders QB Josh McCown sidelined by a toe injury, Daunte Culpepper will return to Miami to face the team that he played for last season.

Culpepper appeared in just 4 games for Miami in 2006 & posted a QB Rating of 77.0 while completing 81 of 134 passes for 929 yards, 2 touchdowns & 3 interceptions.

Culpepper has a 67.7 QB Rating in 2 career games against Miami with 599 passing yards, 1 touchdown & 5 intercetions.

Raiders RB Lamont Jordan has 471 yards from scrimmage, which leads the AFC & is 2nd in the NFL only behind the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook.

Raiders MLB Kirk Morrison has an interception in each of the team’s 3 games this season, which already surpasses his total from the entire 2006 season. (Morrison had 2 interceptions in 16 games.)

Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron has dropped his first 3 games with Miami & is off to the worst start in franchise history since George Wilson lost 5 straight games to start the 1966 season.

Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown had 20 total points against the Jets in Week 3, which is the most by a Miami player since Mark Ingram’s 24 points which was done also against the Jets in 1994.

Mattie T’s Prediction: This should be a close game, as LaMont Jordan should come up big against Miami’s 30th ranked run defense (allowing 166 YPG).

Oakland’s defense overall is 27th by allowing 381.7 YPG, so i think that Trent Green & Co. will be able to put together some key drives & get Cam Cameron his 1st win.

I’m going with Miami here.

vs.
(3-0) Green Bay Packers vs. (1-2) Minnesota Vikings from Metrodome in Minneapolis, MN.

12:00 PM CST on

Did you know? Green Bay has won 5 of the last 9 meetings, with every game being decided by 6 points or less.

Packers QB Brett Favre needs 1 touchdown pass on Sunday to become the NFL’s all-time leader in career touchdown passes.

Favre threw 3 touchdowns during the team’s Week 3 win over San Diego to tie Dan Marino with 420 for his career.

Green Bay is off to its’ first 3-0 start since 2001. The Packers finished at 12-4 & made the playoffs before losing to St. Louis in the NFC Divisional Playoffs.

The Packers have won 7 straight regular season games (longest streak in league) & have not lost since December of 2006, when the team suffered a 38-10 home loss to the N.Y. Jets.

Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson is questionable for Sunday’s game with a groin injury & sat out the team’s Week 3 loss to Kansas City.

If Jackson cannot play this week, Kelly Holcomb will get his 2nd straight start which will give Jackson exactly 4 weeks to rest due to Minnesota’s Week 5 bye.

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson leads all rookie backs with 271 rushing yards this season.

Mattie T’s Prediction: Since 2003, Brett Favre has combined to throw for 11 touchdowns & just 1 interception in 4 starts at the Metrodome. He’ll definitely break the record on Sunday in Minneapolis.

With Green Bay’s anemic run offense (ranked last in NFL with 57 YPG) going up against a strong Minnesota run defense (3rd in NFL allowing 67.3 YPG), expect for Favre to air it out often & have a big day doing so.

I’m going with Green Bay here.

vs.
(2-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (2-1) Carolina Panthers from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC.

3:05 PM CST on

Did you know? Carolina has won 7 of the 8 previous meetings.

Panthers QB David Carr will make his 1st start of the season on Sunday, replacing an injured Jake Delhomme (elbow).

Carr has neved faced Tampa Bay before, but does have a career 91.2 QB rating during the month of October.

Since 2003, Carolina is 1-2 when Delhomme misses a game due to injury.

Panthers RB Deshaun Foster ran for 122 yards during the team’s Week 3 win against Atlanta.

Carolina is now 7-0 when Foster runs for 100 yards or more.

Tampa Bay has vastly improved their run game, as their run offense ranks 6th in the NFC with 119.7 YPG.

Last season at the same exact time, the Buccaneers’ ground game only averaged 43.3 YPG.

Buccaneers RB Carnell Williams will start on Sunday despite rib problems.

Earnest Graham filled in some for Williams during the team’s Week 3 win over St. Louis & rushed 8 times for 75 yards with a pair of touchdowns.

Mattie T’s Prediction: This one could turn into a shootout, as Sunday’s game will matchup Tampa Bay’s 21st ranked run defense (allowing 124.7 YPG) against Carolina’s 21st ranked pass defense (allowing 246.7 YPG).

Jeff Garcia is 3-4 since 1999 against the Panthers. Make it 3-5 after Sunday, as i’m picking Carolina to win this game.

vs.
(2-1) Seattle Seahawks vs. (2-1) San Francisco 49ers from Monster Park in San Francisco, CA.

3:05 PM CST on

Did you know? Seattle has won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck put together his 16th career comeback win in Week 3 against Cincinnati.

Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander had his 2nd 100 yard rushing game of the season (100 yards on 21 carries against Cincinnati), which ties his total from all of 2006.

49ers QB Alex Smith has 18 touchdown passes & 18 interceptions over his last 20 starts.

49ers TE Vernon Davis will miss Sunday’s game with a knee injury. Davis was 3rd on the team with 8 receptions for 83 yards.

Mattie T’s Prediction: Frank Gore absolutely feasted on Seattle’s run defense last season, as the 3rd year back from Miami rushed 53 times for 356 yards (6.7 YPC).

If Gore can go off on Sunday, so can the entire 49ers offense against a Seahawks pass defense that is ranked 30th, allowing 273.7 YPG.

I’m picking San Francisco to win this game.

vs.
(3-0) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (1-2) Arizona Cardinals from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ.

3:15 PM CST on

Did you know? Pittsburgh has won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Steelers RB Willie Parker leads the NFL in rushing (368 yards) & has 886 rushing yards since Week 14 of the ‘06 season, which also leads the NFL.

Steelers WR Hines Ward is doubtful for Sunday’s game after suffering a knee injury during the team’s Week 3 win against San Francisco.

Since 1999, Pittsburgh is 2-1 when Ward misses a game due to injury.

Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt will face his former team for the 1st time on Sunday.

Whisenhunt spent the past 6 seasons in Pittsburgh as the team’s tight ends coach (2001-03) & as offensive coordinator (2004-06) & was along for the ride when Pittsburgh won Super Bowl XL over Seattle.

Cardinals assistant head coach/offensive line coach Russ Grimm will also face his former team on Sunday for the 1st time. Grimm also spent the last 6 seasons in Pittsburgh.

Cardinals QB Matt Leinart will start Sunday’s game despite being platooned with Kurt Warner for most of the team’s Week 3 loss against Baltimore.

Leinart finished with just a 52.1 QB rating while Warner finished with a 150.0 QB rating.

Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin is doubtful for Sunday’s game with a hip injury. Since 2003, Arizona is 2-6 when Boldin misses a game due to injury.
Boldin currently ranks 8th in the NFL with 286 receiving yards, 9th with 95.3 yards per game, & 6th with 22 receptions.

Bryant Johnson will most likely start in place of Boldin.

Mattie T’s Prediction: I was ready to deliver an upset pick until the news of Boldin’s injury. Arizona will miss him dearly, as Larry Fitzgerald has yet to reach the end zone on his 15 receptions this season.

The Cardinals will be facing a stingy Steeler defense that is 1st in the NFL with 8.7 points allowed, 2nd with 244.3 yards allowed, 7th with 79.7 yards allowed against the run & 6th with 164.7 yards allowed against the pass.

I’m picking Pittsburgh to win this one.

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(2-1) Denver Broncos vs. (3-0) Indianapolis Colts from RCA Dome in Indianapolis, IN.

3:15 PM CST on

Did you know? Colts QB Peyton Manning is 5-2 all-time against the Broncos.

Manning needs a win on Sunday to tie Ken Stabler for 12th place with 96 career regular-season victories.

Indianapolis has won 10 straight regular-season home games at the RCA Dome & is looking to tie the franchise record with a win Sunday.

Since 2004, the Colts have gone 26-3 at the RCA Dome with their only losses suffered to the Chargers, Jaguars & Broncos.

Colts WR Marvin Harrison enters Sunday’s game with 123 career touchdowns & needs two to tie Walter Payton for #7 & three to tie Jim Brown for #6 on the all-time list.

Broncos WR Javon Walker is doubtful for Sunday’s game with a knee injury that was suffered during the team’s Week 3 loss to Jacksonville.

Former Colt Brandon Stokley could move into Denver’s starting lineup if Walker can’t play.

Broncos S John Lynch is questionable for Sunday’s game with a groin injury.

Lynch has only missed 1 previous game due to injury since 2003, which was won 31-13 by Denver.

Mattie T’s Prediction: Sunday’s game will be a great test for Peyton Manning, as he will face Denver’s top-ranked pass defense, which is only allowing 88.3 YPG.

On the other hand, Denver hasn’t exactly faced an All-Pro quarterback like Manning yet this season.

If Manning can’t get it going Sunday, then Joseph Addai will against Denver’s 29th ranked run defense (166.0 YPG)

I’m picking Indianapolis to win this game.

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(1-2) Kansas City Chiefs vs. (1-2) San Diego Chargers from Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA.

3:15 PM CST on

Did you know? San Diego has won 7 of the last 9 home meetings.

The Chargers are off to a 1-2 start in 2007. San Diego did not suffer their 2nd loss last season until Week 7 against the Chiefs & have not lost a regular-season home game since New Year’s Eve of 2005 to Denver.

Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson has just 130 rushing yards so far this season, which is his lowest 3 game total ever during his career. Tomlinson also has just 1 rushing touchdown over his last 5 games, which was done during the team’s Week 1 win over Chicago.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers completed 15 straight pass attempts to start the team’s Week 3 loss to Green Bay, which tied Dan Fouts, who did it in 1981 against Cleveland.

Chiefs QB Damon Huard has started 11 games for the Chiefs & has a QB rating of 100 or better in 6 of those games. Kansas City is 6-0 when Huard’s QB rating is 100 or higher.

Mattie T’s Prediction: This is the week that LaDainian Tomlinson finally gets himself into gear.

Kansas City has allowed 2 straight 100 yard rushers (Cedric Benson in Week 2 & Adrian Peterson in Week 3), so that should bode well for LT’s fantasy owners who have been frustrated with his slow start.

Expect for Tomlinson to run wild on Sunday, which is why i’m picking San Diego to win this game.

vs.
(1-2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (1-2) N.Y. Giants from Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.

7:15 PM CST.

Did you know? Since 2001, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb is 7-1 against the Giants.

Philadelphia scored 56 points during the team’s Week 3 win against Detroit, marking the 1st time the team has done do since 1953, when Jim Trimble was the team’s head coach.

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook & Eagles WR Kevin Curtis both had 3 touchdowns apiece during the 1st half of Week 3, which marks the first time in NFL history that two players from the same team reached the end zone three seperate times during the same half.

Westbrook also has 10 rushing touchdowns against the Giants for his career, which is the most by any opposing player against Gang Blue since the start of 2002.)

Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 18-9 all-time during prime time broadcasts.

Giants TE Jeremy Shockey (329 career receptions) surpassed Bob Tucker as the team’s all-time receptions leader for tight ends during the team’s Week 3 win over Washington.

Giants QB Eli Manning has lost his last 5 home starts at the Meadowlands with 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions & a 66.3 QB Rating.

Mattie T’s Prediction: I think both Donovan McNabb & Eli Manning will have big games on Sunday night, but the Giants will struggle trying to run the ball against the Eagles’ 4th ranked run defense (allowing 71.7 YPG.)

That will be the difference in what looks to be a high-scoring affair. But i gotta go with Philadephia here.

vs.
(3-0) New England Patriots vs. (1-2) Cincinnati Bengals from Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH.

7:30 PM CST.

Did you know? New England has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

The Patriots have scored exactly 38 points in each of their first 3 games & lead the AFC with 114 points.

Patriots QB Tom Brady is off to an MVP start.

Brady has connected on an amazing 79.5% of his pass completions this season, has thrown for 10 touchdowns & has a QB rating of 141.8, which all lead the NFL.

Patriots WR Randy Moss became the 1st player in NFL history to record 3 straight 100 yard receiving games with his new team.

Moss is 2nd in the NFL with 403 receiving yards.

Cincinnati has not beaten New England since 1992, when Boomer Esiason was the team’s starting quarterback.

Bengals QB Carson Palmer threw for 342 yards during the team’s Week 3 loss to Seattle & now has 9 career 300+ yard games. However, Cincinnati’s record during that timeframe is 4-5.

Bengals WR Chad Johnson leads the NFL with 442 receiving yards, while Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh leads the NFL with 29 receptions.

Bengals RB Rudi Johnson is doubtful for Monday’s game after rushing for just 17 yards on 9 carries before leaving with a hamstring injury.

Since 2002, Cincinnati is 2-13 when Johnson has missed a game due to injury.

Mattie T’s Prediction: The Bengals are in big trouble.

Cincinnati’s 29th ranked defense (allowing 31.7 PPG) will now face New England’s 2nd ranked offense (38 PPG) & i don’t think the Bengals can stop the Patriots from moving the football at will against their porous D.

Defensively, New England is allowing just 11.7 PPG & is ranked 5th against the run (allowing 74 YPG) & 2nd against the pass (allowing 133 YPG).

Cincinnati on the other hand, is ranked both 27th against the run (allowing 145 YPG) & against the pass (257.7 YPG).

I’m picking New England to win this one easily.

Until then,

Mattie T

Sports Writer for BMS Radio Chicago

www.BMSRadio.com

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