Mattie T’s Wild Card Weekend Reviews, Predictions & My Picks to reach Super Bowl XLI

The time is finally here!

12 teams begin their quest, 1 play & 1 possession at a time to try and earn a berth to Super Bowl XLI on February 4th from Miami, FL.

Who will walk away with the Vince Lombardi Trophy as the champions of the NFL?

The time to find that out starts now.

vs.
#6 Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) vs. #3 Indianapolis Colts (12-4) from the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, IN.

(Colts lead all-time postseason series 2-0.)
4:30 PM EST on Saturday.

This will be Kansas City’s 7th all-time Wild Card apperance.

The Chiefs hold a 2-4 record in their previous Wild Card games, with the last win coming in 1993 (Marty Schottenheimer was team’s head coach) when they defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24 in OT.

Kansas City’s last road playoff win was also in 1993 when they defeated the Houston Oilers 28-20 at the old Astrodome.

The Chiefs’ last Wild Card loss came in 1994 when they were defeated 27-17 by the Miami Dolphins.

The Chiefs are 0-3 all time at the RCA Dome.

This will be Indianapolis’ 7th all-time Wild Card appearance.

The Colts hold a 3-3 record in their previous Wild Card games, with their last win coming in 2004 when they defeated the Denver Broncos 49-24.

The playoff win was the first for current Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning.

Manning is 3-0 all-time in the playoffs against members of the AFC West.

(Beat Denver in ‘03 & ‘04 and Kansas City in ‘03.)

Indianapolis’ last Wild Card loss came in 2002, when they were defeated 41-0 by the N.Y. Jets.

Mattie T’s Prediction:

The million-dollar question that everyone wants to know is:

Can the Colts’ 32nd ranked run defense stop Chiefs RB Larry Johnson?

I’m not sure of the answer to that, BUT i do know the chances of Kansas City pulling off an upset which will depend on the number of carries that Johnson receives on Saturday.

When Johnson receives 30 or more carries in a game this season, the Chiefs are 6-0.

When Johnson receives less than 30 carries in a game this season, the Chiefs are 3-7.

If Kansas City gets behind big early, they will have to abandon the run which will spell loads of trouble for QB Trent Green (who will reportedly be benched for Damon Huard if he struggles during the 1st half) & the Chiefs offense.

I like the Colts as they have a more complete offense who will have the advantage should this game turn into a shootout on Saturday.
Colts win 35-24.

vs.
#5 N.Y. Jets (10-6) vs. #4 New England Patriots (12-4) from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA.

(Patriots lead all-time postseason series 1-0, regular-season meetings are tied 1-1.)
1:00 PM EST on Sunday.

This will be the N.Y. Jets’ 8th all-time Wild Card apperance.

The Jets hold a 3-4 record in their previous Wild Card games, with the last win coming in 2004 when they defeated the San Diego Chargers 20-17 in overtime when Herm Edwards was the team’s head coach.

The Jets’ last Wild Card loss came in 2001, when they were defeated 38-24 by the Oakland Raiders.

This will be New England’s 6th all-time Wild Card apperance.

The Patriots hold a 3-2 record in their previous Wild Card games with the last win coming in 2005, when they defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-3.

New England’s last Wild Card loss came in 1998, when they were defeated 25-10 by the Jacksonville Jaguars with Pete Carroll as the team’s head coach.

Patriots QB Tom Brady is 10-1 all-time in the postseason & 9-2 all-time against the Jets.

Mattie T’s Prediction:

This should be an excellent game between the Jets’ Eric Mangini & the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, as both men will try to outwit eachother for 60 minutes on Sunday.

Sunday’s game should be close, but i can’t see a Tom Brady-led team losing at home to the playoff-inexperienced Jets.

Amazingly enough, New England hasn’t lost a home playoff game since 1978, when they were defeated 31-14 by the Houston Oilers when Chuck Fairbanks was the team’s head coach.

Since then, they have won 8 consecutive home games in the postseason.

Make it 9 after Sunday.

Patriots win 20-17.

vs.
#5 Dallas Cowboys (9-7) vs. #4 Seattle Seahawks (9-7) from Qwest Field in Seattle, WA.

8:00 PM EST on Saturday.

This will be Dallas’ 8th all-time Wild Card apperance.

The Cowboys hold a 3-4 record in their previous Wild Card games with the last win coming in 1996 when they defeated the Minnesota Vikings 40-15 with Barry Switzer as the team’s head coach.

Dallas’ last Wild Card loss came in 2003 when they were defeated 29-10 by the Carolina Panthers, which was Bill Parcells’ 1st season with the team.

The Cowboys overcame a 10 point deficit in the final 2 minutes in their last visit to Qwest Field, rallying for a 43-39 win during Monday Night Football in December of 2004.

Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck threw for 414 yards (2nd highest total in his career) during that loss.

This will be Seattle’s 7th all-time Wild Card appearance.

The Seahawks’ last Wild Card win came in 1984 when they defeated the L.A. Raiders 13-7 with Chuch Knox as the team’s head coach.

Seattle’s last Wild Card loss came during the 2004 season when they were defeated 27-20 by the St. Louis Rams.

The Seahawks have never won a Wild Card game (0-2 overall) after winning their division.

Mattie T’s Prediction:

Both teams (lost 3 of last 4 games) are struggling heading into Saturday’s matchup.

Dallas’ recent struggles have all come at Texas Stadium, where they have been outscored 104-55 in their 3 consecutive home losses.

Playing on the road might solve the Cowboys’ recent slide, where they haven’t lost since Week 9 when they were defeated 22-19 by the Washington Redskins on a 47 yard field goal by Nick Novak with no time remaining.

Seattle has struggled recently at home (Lost to Min & SF at Qwest Field after going 10-0 at home last season, incl. playoffs) & has not won a home game since Week 12, when they defeated Green Bay 34-24.

Seahawks WR’s Darrell Jackson (toe), Nate Burleson (ankle) & D.J. Hackett (hip flexor) may miss Saturday’s game with injuries, which would be a tremendous blow to the team’s receiving corps.

If the threesome are inactive for Saturday, it will leave Seattle with just Deion Branch & Bobby Engram as their 2 healthiest receivers.

With Saturday’s game possibly turning into a shootout, i like the Cowboys’ receiving tandem of Terrell Owens & Terry Glenn to exploit a Seahawks secondary that will be without Kelly Herndon (broken ankle, out for season) & Marcus Trufant (ankle, doubtful) for Saturday’s game.

Cowboys win 31-21.

vs.
#6 N.Y. Giants (8-8) vs. #3 Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA.

(Giants lead all-time postseason meetings 2-0, season meetings tied 1-1.)

4:30 PM EST on Sunday.

This will be the N.Y. Giants’ 8th all-time Wild Card apperance.

The Giants hold a 4-3 record in their previous Wild Card games with their last win coming in 1993 when they defeated the Minnesota Vikings 17-10 with Dan Reeves as the team’s head coach.

The Giants’ last Wild Card loss (3 straight losses overall) came in 2005 when they were defeated 23-0 by the Carolina Panthers.

This will be Philadelphia’s 11th Wild Card apperance.

The Eagles hold a 5-5 record in their previous Wild Card games with their last win coming in 2001 when they defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9.

Philadelphia’s last Wild Card loss came in 1996 when they were defeated 14-0 by the San Francisco 49ers with Ray Rhodes as the team’s head coach.

Mattie T’s Prediction:

These two teams have gone in different directions since the Giants’ 30-24 come-from-behind road win in overtime against the Eagles in Week 2.

The Giants have gone 7-7 (.500) since, while the Eagles have gone 9-5 (.643) & winning the NFC East.

Philadelphia is the hottest team in the NFC (5 straight wins) heading into the playoffs & i think they will continue to play well Sunday, which will mean the end on Broadway for both Tom Coughlin & Tiki Barber.

Eagles win 28-17.

Now it’s time to reveal my picks for Super Bowl XLI!

Mattie T’s AFC pick:

I like the Ravens for several reasons to reach the Super Bowl.

-Defense wins championships.

Baltimore’s defense leads the NFL in several key categories, including points allowed (12.9), yards allowed per game (264.1), interceptions (28), & turnovers returned for touchdowns (11).

-The presence of Steve McNair at quarterback.

McNair has shown veteran leadership for Baltimore all season long, winning 3 games this season in the final minute of action.

-The offensive coordinator switch.

Since Ravens head coach Brian Billick took over the play-calling for the departed Jim Fassel, Baltimore has scored 243 points in the last 10 games for an average of 24.3 points per game. (Team went 9-1 during that stretch.)

With Fassel as the team’s offensive coordinator, Baltimore scored 110 points in their first 6 games for an average of 18.3 points per game. (Team went 4-2 during that stretch.)

-The playoff factor.

Baltimore is the only team out of this year’s playoff field that has not lost a game to all 11 of the other opponents who are competing for a shot at the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

The Ravens have beaten New Orleans, Kansas City & San Diego this season.

Baltimore was also 1 of 4 teams to hold LaDainian Tomlinson (31 touchdowns on the season) out of the end zone this season, but was the only team that beat San Diego. (Pittsburgh, Seattle & Arizona all lost.)

-The championship experience.

Just 6 years ago, Baltimore won Super Bowl XXXV with a dominating defense.

The 2006 Ravens might not be as good defensively, but their offense has improved big-time with the addition of McNair.

Those 2 combinations could have the Ravens celebrating in Miami on February 4th.

Mattie T’s NFC Pick:

I like the Eagles for several seasons to reach the Super Bowl.

-The resurgence of Jeff Garcia.

Garcia has done a terrific job since taking over for Donovan McNabb (torn ACL, out for season) & the team has played better as a result.

The 8th year veteran has gone 4-1 as a starter this season (excluding Philly’s Week 17 win against Atlanta where Garcia made a brief apperance) & has a better quarterback rating (95.8 in 8 games) in fewer games than McNabb (5-5 as starter) did. (95.5 in 10 games).

Garcia has also been able to stay on his feet, getting sacked just 6 times in his last 5 starts. (avg of 1.2 per game)

McNabb was sacked 21 times in 10 games this season. (avg of 2.1 per game)

-Road Warriors.

Philadelphia did the unthinkable in the midst of a tight NFC East divisional race & with a playoff spot on the line: They were the only team in the NFL to win 3 consecutive road games in December against divisional opponents!

That stretch helped the team clinch their 5th NFC East title in the past 6 seasons.

The previous 4 times Philadephia won their division, they reached the NFC Championship Game.

There’s no better way to reach the playoffs then to know that you can win away from home and the Eagles have proved that they can win wherever they go.

Their last road loss was in Week 12 to Indianapolis when Joseph Addai had a career day with 171 yards rushing & 4 touchdowns.

Philadelphia’s run defense (26th in NFL, allowing 136.4 yards per game) could be their downfall should they fail to reach the Super Bowl.

But during the current 5 game win streak, they allowed 150 or more rushing yards on defense twice AND STILL WON!

Since the Colts’ loss, the Eagles have allowed a total of 2 rushing touchdowns over their last 5 games. (all wins)

-NFC Championship Game Experience.

Philadelphia went 22 years without a NFC Championship Game win since their last Super Bowl apperance in 1980.

But they finally broke through in 2004 when they defeated Atlanta 27-10 to advance to Super Bowl XXXIX before losing to the New England Patriots.

Now that the monkey is off their back, i believe that Philadelphia can once again get to the NFC Championship Game & win for just the 3rd time in the team’s 74 year history.

And what if Philadelphia & Baltimore do meet up in Super Bowl XLI?

I think that Steve McNair will finally get his championship ring that he came oh-so-close to getting in Super Bowl XXXIV when Rams LB Mike Jones made a touchdown-saving tackle on Titans WR Kevin Dyson in the game’s final seconds to give St. Louis their 1st championship in franchise history with a 23-16 win over McNair’s Titans.

McNair completed 22 of 26 passes for 214 yards in a losing effort & helped Tennessee rally from a 16 point deficit, becoming the 1st team in Super Bowl history to do so.

As for Philadelphia, their championship drought will continue.

The last professional sports team from Philadelphia to win a championship was the ‘83 76ers, who swept the L.A. Lakers in 4 games to win the NBA Finals.

Wild Card Weekend Recaps & Divisional Playoff Previews will be posted next week.

Until then,

Mattie T

Sports Writer for BMS Radio Chicago

www.BMSRadio.com

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